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Now we wish to express here all the pleasure that we have to discover the remarkable talent of the Fantasy artist Gerald Brom, thanks to the very beautiful site:
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People speak little et badly about the relationship between Chess and Hazard, because they are complex and multiform. It is what I propose to analyze here.
Aristote defined the hazard as an "accidental cause of additional effects taking the appearence of a finality". At all events, this concept remainded ambiguous a long time and, still today, all its capacity of fascination are not lost. In a simpler language, the hazard holds so that we are inapt to inaptes to envige the realization or not of certain events. Let us Note that the term itself come from Arabic word az-zahr, which want to say: "dice. playing dice". We are thus led to pass from the hazard to the forecast. In its modern form they are statistics and probalilities.
The Theory of Probability constitues a modelisation (or, if you prefer a modeling) of randomly connected problems. However, certain phenomena are easily modelisable, whereas others are it much less; or, sometimes, escape radically from any modeling. It will be noted that the game of dice, like all game of pure hazard, is particularly well adapted for the use of probabilities. But, as regards of the chess game the situation is quite different.
The statistics in determining empirical (I mean experimental) probabilies, based on the study of representative samples of appropriate populations. However, it's true Chess give place to statistical studies, in connection with specific and rather elementary problems; this ones are not always of a great interest. And, in parallel, you'll find any probabilistic model frankly well adapted to Chess.
First assertion: develops todays, within the framework of data bases, a statistical study of the chess game. One will know, for example, which the empirical probability to win or lost, in a given position. This considerations are rather crude and must be used with understanding. It would be necessary, at the very least, to carry out a more attentive examination, integrating various factors such as the ELO rating of players and the evolution, in the course of time, of the comprehension of such or such chess opening variation.
In fact, precisely, chess rating ELO is an information, in statistical matter, which, without being perfect, proves particularly reliable. This being said, one notes well that the preceding data relate to the chances that one has to win, cancel or lost a chess game, against or not a precise opponent, and all this in a specific context. To consider a modelisation, it's to go much more to the heart of the sources of the hazard.
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«© www.Aumania.it - Fantasy Art -
«© www.Aumania.it - Fantasy Art -
«© www.Aumania.it - Fantasy Art -
«© www.Aumania.it - Fantasy Art -
«© www.Aumania.it - Fantasy Art -
«© www.Aumania.it - Fantasy Art -
«© www.Aumania.it - Fantasy Art -
